molly.com

Thursday 26 October 2006

ie7 Adoption Rate: Faster Than You Think?

The fantastic Ajax Experience Boston conference just wrapped up. It was an excellent event, attended by well-known industry luminaries alongside young Web developers and designers aching to learn as much as they can about JavaScript, Ajax, Rich Internet Apps, and something that’s made me very happy: A drive to understand great document structure and CSS.

The following transcript and video is an excerpt from Chris Wilson’s presentation. Chris is the Platform Architect for Internet Explorer. Here, he’s discussing why he believes the adoption rate of IE7 will be faster than we might think.

You can enjoy the video I grabbed of Chris presenting this information, in .mov format (2meg), provided here with express permission of Jay Zimmerman on behalf of the Ajax Experience, and Chris Wilson.

[There have been three million downloads of IE7] ” . . . and that’s in the first four days. From that, I think you can probably extrapolate actually the adoption curve is probably going to be fairly steep.

And as to the Windows XP question, turns out nearly 90% of the Windows based web share is running on XP. It’s running on XP or server 2003 actually, which we do offer IE7 for. So we actually hit 9 out of 10 users today and that continues to ramp up. Like the XP share continues to get bigger as people upgrade machines, or buy new machines, frequently.

So I think that you’ll actually see, and granted this is a little early since we’ve only been out for five days or something, you’ll actually see the curve on this will quickly be clear how soon we’ll get to ditch IE6 and I can’t really predict that, but I think you’ll find it’s going to be quicker than what most people expect today.”

- Chris Wilson, Microsoft

I’m sure there are many opinions to share, so have at it by entering your comments here.

Filed under:   professional, standards, software, WaSP, society, browsers, microsoft, ie7, theajaxexperience
Posted by:   Molly | 9:31 am |

755 Responses to “ie7 Adoption Rate: Faster Than You Think?”

  1. Aaron Gustafson Says:

    This was really exciting to hear. I think it was perhaps the most exciting announcement at the event altogether.

    It was good seeing you again too, Molly.

  2. Faruk Ateş Says:

    That’s nice and all, but I predict that we’ll see a significant enough share of IE6 users remain for quite some time now, that will warrant continued support for the browser in the years to come.

    Those of us working on larger sites are still supporting IE5.0 to an extent, and that browser’s market share (including 5.5 even) is already bordering on a mere percentage. My bet: IE6 isn’t going to drop below 1% anytime soon, but if it does, I’ll be extremely happy of course. :-)

  3. Ed Says:

    From a security point of view I’m just glad we have a browser from Microsoft which gives more people the confidence to use the web. Rendering tweaks and the rest are welcome, of course, but with more people on the web, the more justifiable it becomes for businesses to adopt the web as a means of admin / comms / sales / marketing which drives the web development industry, i.e. us.

    As for standards support, considering how easy it it to break existing and legacy applications that rely on the old rendering engine, I think they’ve done admirably well.

    Faruk mentioned support for IE5 still required on larger sites. Well, that’s OK but as long as it doesn’t affect functionality for the majority IE6 market. You have to draw the line at how much investment is needed to support a minority market.

  4. Shawn Says:

    I host about ten sites at the moment, and have watched the curve of IE7 adoption rise in relation to the type of content each site has. I didn’t expect, however, that visitors of the non-web-related sites have adopted it much, much faster.

    I haven’t really decided, yet, what exactly that says about the visitors to either end of the spectrum…

  5. Koen "Grubolsch" Eelen Says:

    I’m not so positive about this “good” news from Chris Wilson. Afther all, the adaption of IE 7.0 is only available for legitime XP users, who have a proper license. And I’m afraid that a big part of all the homeusers falls under the category: “using illegal XP”. It would be great if MS could make the 90% users true… but in reality I don’t see it happen.

  6. Chris Casciano Says:

    I haven’t really decided, yet, what exactly that says about the visitors to either end of the spectrum…

    One thing different about the web developers is that they may be one of the only populations that would be worried about leaving IE6.0 behind (or intentionally keeping IE6 around)

  7. Martijn ten Napel Says:

    I don’t believe we can ditch IE6 soon. Lots of companies do still run on Windows2000, lots of companies won’t upgrade their browser very soon; I guess that after testing intranet applications which are often standardised on IE6 and the like we will have several years of having to support both versions, while IE7 is still playing catch up to the other browsers.

    I cannot expect Chris Wilson to be negative about his project (and he should not be!), but let’s face reality here.

  8. pattyb Says:

    This probably isn’t the right post to add this comment too, but here it is: I am disappointed that IE 7 does not treat font sizes measured in pixels as relative, or at least to be resized using Page->Text Size. To me this is a *huge* issue and should have been the first CSS issue resolved in the new release. Many existing sites use pixels as the unit of font-size measurement, and Dreamweaver uses it by default. Argh.

  9. Baxter Says:

    I’ve been pretty stunned, on my largest site, I’m already seeing 8 percent of my IE users are on 7, almost overnight. And that’s a busy site with a lot of diverse traffic. Granted, my users tend to be better educated, more affluent and a bit more web-savvy than the general population, but it’s a guitar site, not a tech site.

  10. Ed Says:

    > I am disappointed that IE 7 does
    > not treat font sizes measured in
    > pixels as relative, or at least
    > to be resized using Page->Text Size.

    There are many applications that use shdocvw.dll which is the IE component. If the application renders a particular HTML resource, it will adopt the IE settings and will often not have the facility to resize the text. It’s such a simple thing to fix that the only justification for not doing so must be legacy application support.

    Personally, I think the zoom facility is a much better option than text resizing.

  11. Phil Nash Says:

    I agree with Koen, it’s not right, but there are thousands, hundreds of thousands, even millions of people with pirated versions of Windows XP. I wrote about this nearly two months ago in this article.

    Put another way, I haven’t noticed a huge increase of IE7 users visiting my site, but I have had an increase in searches for getting IE7 without validation arrive on the article above.

    IE6 is here to stay for a while.

  12. Megan Says:

    I’m quite optimistic actually. I figure the people who are using pirated XP or win 2000 are savvy enough to know that a) their browser is now out of date and b)there are alternatives.

    Of course, it all depends on your site and your audience. I’ve noticed recently that my site stats are quite different than what others report in many areas. Once it dips below 20% or so I won’t hesitate to use conditional comments to serve it CSS it can handle if necessary (while not completely breaking the site of course!).

    People seem to have varying definitions of what a long time is too. I can see it being phased out in about a year, and that’s not a long time.

  13. Niko Neugebauer Says:

    I am confident, that the adoption rate inside the industry will be very high, anyone who understands what IE7 brings - will adopt it, the most will stick to the Firefox though.
    As the matter of a fact, i believe that a reasonably high percentage of the home computers still have pirated versions of XP - and there are enough firms still sticking to the Win2000 (i know several firms which are). The enthusiasm about Vista is not that high as it was about XP (not many people like to upgrade their computer just to have better Office Visuals), and the biggest adoption will start only after Service Pack 1.
    I agree with Megan, that the statistics will depend on the site audience, but eventually IE7 will overtake IE6 for the better of all of us. =)
    With all of this i would say, that IE7 should not conquer more then 45% of the market by the end of the next year (best case).

  14. Tuna Says:

    Well the IE forced roll out has started. I all ready have stats this morning (GMT +8) of IE 7 climbing to 20%, I expect by the end of next week for it to overtake IE6 on the our larger general public sites. Which is good as its going to make life easier design wise.

  15. Lee Says:

    Lawdy! Apparently,I’ve been watching too much tv recently (or at least too much of the wrong programming) My first thought when I read the subject title was “So, Madgedonna thinks she can now try to adopt poor orphaned Malawian browsers, eh?”

  16. Ben Buchanan Says:

    I think we’ll see a big percentage but not the total, sudden IE6->IE7 flip that Microsoft seems to be suggesting.

    There are just too many situations that will prevent IE7 being installed - locked down corporate environments, users with slow connections, users with updates disabled, users who say no to the update, users with win2k, users pirated installs, etc.

    I think we’ll see a stubborn percentage of IE6 users for some time yet. Enough that we won’t be able to stop developing for it for quite a while. I’d *love* to be wrong on this one of course :)

  17. patrick Says:

    Molly, we had 541 visits to our site with IE7. October, it’s 593 and there’s a week to go. Now there’s around 26000 or so visits with IE6, but that’s so 2005.

  18. patrick Says:

    That first sentence should have read “…with IE7 in Sept.” Can’t blame this on a font-size bug, can I?

  19. Chris Wilson Says:

    Ben,

  20. Chris Wilson Says:

    (Grr. Darn tab key.)

    Ben, I did not intend to imply a sudden IE6->IE7 flip; that commentary was partly in response to Ben Galbraith’s note during the opening keynote that IE6 will be with us for a really long time. I just think the adoption rate of IE7 will be faster than previous IE versions, given the data we’re seeing.

  21. Wilco Says:

    This kind of news makes me wish I wasn’t building for famrers with win98 on there system.

  22. Hayo Bethlehem Says:

    Too bad the international versions aren’t released yet. I’m not seeing any movement on my Dutch sites yet.

  23. And all that Malarkey Says:

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  24. Quinn Says:

    Agree to Hayo. They don’t even have other than english while Firefox2.0 is out already.

  25. Microsoft predicts swift adoption of IE7 - The Web Standards Project Says:

    […] If you’re interested in seeing a snippet of video from the speech, captured by Molly, jump on over to her post on the topic. […]

  26. nickh Says:

    The large British public broadcaster I work for at 2.5% IE7 the the month of September! This has since risen to about 3.3%, and its only just launched. Firefox has 12% & Safari presently has 3.5%.

    All figures are approximate and subject to weird user behaviour. We still get 1% NN4 on our homepage.

  27. Jessica’s Blog » Blog Archive » ie7 Adoption Rate: Faster Than You Think? Says:

    […] ie7 Adoption Rate: Faster Than You Think? […]

  28. Ray Drainville Says:

    The swiftness of IE7 adoption also depends, of course, on *how* companies update. Small shops will download IE7 once and then apply it across their network. It’s what we did, and I hardly think we’re alone. More interesting, perhaps, would be to find out not the numbers of IE7 *downloads*, but the number of *Genuine Advantage activations* for administering the IE7 update–that would give us a far clearer idea of its adoption rate.

  29. JD on EP Says:

    Lots of links

    Lots of links: Too much stuff to read last week, but here are some of the pages I’ve kept open in my browsers so I wouldn’t forget ‘em, you may find something here you missed…….

  30. Bryan Garnett-Law Says:

    I just complied the stats on my sites at work, already at 2.8% with IE7, I can’t wait to see the stats at the end of the current month, hoping for a speedy transition with MS deploying via Windows update from today(?) I think.

  31. Charlie Bass Says:

    Seriously guys, who cares about IE and Micro$oft, apart from those people who kiss their ass online hoping to get their hands on some of their millions? Just get Firefox 2, it rules!!

  32. Koen "Grubolsch" Eelen Says:

    Why should we hate them? Without them we webdesigners would even have a job, MS did bring computers and the internet to the masses. I don’t gonna use a browser just because it’s “against” MS. ;)

  33. lieb Says:

    Unfortunately some rather large sofware vendors like Sungard/SCT and Peoplesoft say they won’t certify their products for IE 7 until sometime next spring. This means that many big shops, and most universities, will not be upgrading to IE 7 in the near future. Seems wierd that MS didn’t work with these companies to make sure they;d be ready.
    Paul

  34. Alex Says:

    Well i’m 15 and browsing the web used to be a breeze with the old IE but v7 totally screws it all up, it takes ages to load, freezes, is unresponsive and does not work with my anti-virus update service so i have to load another browser and copy the url if i can get ie to work! i now use firefox and Opera browser, which are faster, nicer to use, and offer better protection and opening links in new tabs is a lot faster! Why would people want to use it till they sort it out? Sorry if i am wrong to you but browsers are meant to be fast and efficient and easy to use, and only be held back by your bandwidth not freezing when you try to do anything, no it is not my pc, it is new and very fast with the other browsers.

  35. Charlie Bass Says:

    Koen, I take your point but its generally accepted that FF2 is far superior to IE7, so why is anyone in the standards community plugging IE7 at all? As I said, I suspect it comes back to kissing Micro$oft’s ass in the hope of landing some work from them. It wasn’t too long ago that certain people sneered at IE (very rightly so!), now they’re firmly on the IE7 bandwagon and even wearing the tshirt. ;-)

  36. Mortal Says:

    I’m fighting for Firefox.
    No new Internet Explorer is gonna stop me.

    Everyone that I’ve forced FF on has liked it, so I guess there’s nothing in the actual IE software that’s making other people stick to it.

    Go standards.

  37. Jordan Says:

    I discovered that IE7’s “zoom” feature was breaking some of my pages. Badly.

    For shame, Microsoft. Why not just admit that you are losing the race, and advise people to use a *functional* browser in the time being? You can always update them automagically to IE8, assuming it’s any good. No, instead developers need to work around yet another list of browser quirks. For shame.

    *Phew!* That little rant off my chest, this is a good thing. At least, more people will hopefully start seeing some of the nice little things I’ve worked into my websites to reward users of compliant browsers. And it also indicates a greater willingness in general to adopt new technology and software. With any luck, we’ll soon be able to drop IE6-hacking completely from our repertoire, just as we have hopefully dropped IE5. The few “scofflaws” (I mean this figuratively *and* literally) who stick to old versions will see more and more of the internet breaking for them, and will quickly realise that they are being left in the dust.

    I can’t wait to see what ensues when IE8 comes out. Perhaps it will actually follow the standard faithfully! Dare we bate our breath?

  38. eyedeas » to hack or not to hack? what a dreaded question… Says:

    […] IE7 Adoption Rate: Faster Than You Think? - Molly Holzschlag […]

  39. Web Forefront Says:

    Internet Explorer 7 and CSS changes.

    After a long wait, the newest Internet Explorer version is out, IE 7 release ( Team blog entry with download link). Without a doubt the most interesting ‘feature’ — as far as us application developers are concerned — is…

  40. rastafario Says:

    Microsoft’s ill fated decission to make IE7 available for WGA copies of windows only will result in either those machines to continue using IE6 or finally start using a “REAL” standards-based browser.

    Considering that there is a VERY significant number of computers running windows without WGA, we’ll continue to see IE6 for a long,long time to come, but on a brighter note some of those users will shift to other browsers.

    Personally I’d like to see IE6 dead and gone 2 years ago, but sadly it will remain to plague us for years to come. At this moment I don’t see IE7 as anything to overly concern myself about and shall primarily produce standards-based sites with IE6 tweaks like I did before IE7 was released.

    Cheers

  41. Fat Publishing Says:

    Well its been 3 weeks since the release (via automatic updates) of Internet Explorer 7 (IE7). 7% of visitors to our client sites are using the new browser version.

    It is a slow take up in my mind. Clearly lots of people have automatic updates turned off. The release of vista in January will improve the take up. If you are a developer, be prepared to program for both IE6 and IE7 for some time to come.

  42. Pixel Acres » Blog Archive » When to stop testing? Says:

    […] Spurred on my the skyrocketing popularity of Firefox, Microsoft have finally resumed development of Internet Explorer. While not without its quirks, this new release is a quantum leap forward from IE6. Once IE7 usage eclipses that of IE6, we can look forward to much faster development times as a result of greater parity between the various browsers. So far adoption of IE7 has been fairly fast, and will really take off once the Vista OS is released. […]

  43. Internet Explorer 7 adoption rates « Web Development and Design News Says:

    […] from Molly.com […]

  44. Internet Explorer 7 - Imaginary Media Says:

    […] Chris Wilson also predicts a rapid adoption rate for IE7, citing 12 million downloads in the initial four days. With the Windows XP Automatic Update feature promoting upgrades and 90% of Windows users now running Windows XP or Server 2003 the uptake of the new browser may be considerable. […]

  45. Ian Says:

    It’s interesting that in the first few days four times as many people downloaded Firefox manually than downloaded IE7 manually.

    When people choose themselves, they overwhelmingly choose Firefox over IE7.

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  47. Autoreisen Says:

    still waiting for IE-8 *lol*

  48. creating sales letters Says:

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  49. Thomas Says:

    i haven’t used ie7 until now and probably never will. when i started using firefox about 2 years ago i immediatly fell in love. and i’m not the guy that cheats on his love. ;)

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    Forcing users to use legit XP to download IE7 will just push users towards Firefox. Something that may effect Safari usage is the release of Safari for Windows - it is a little bit better than Firefox in my opinion, but without the useful Firefox plugins.

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    I’ve been pretty stunned, on my largest site, I’m already seeing 8 percent of my IE users are on 7, almost overnight. And that’s a busy site with a lot of diverse traffic. Granted, my users tend to be better educated, more affluent and a bit more web-savvy than the general population, but it’s a guitar site, not a tech site.

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